Global Deal Outlook
Strong demand in China and the Eurozone is having a positive impact on global deal values.
Given how closely our forecast in the last GTF edition matches the near-final data for 2017, plus the positive developments we’ve seen in the global economy, we expect deal activity to accelerate in 2018. We forecast global M&A values to rise from US$2.6 trillion in 2017 to US$3.2 trillion in 2018. In the IPO market, we forecast values to climb from US$187 billion in 2017 to a cyclical peak of US$290 billion in 2018. This is a little higher than the previous cyclical peak of US$276 billion in 2014, but remains below the US$300 billion-plus volumes raised in previous peak years of 2006 and 2010.
With several macroeconomic and financial deal drivers reaching a cyclical peak in 2018, however, we expect next year to mark the high point of the deal cycle. A range of factors will cool deal activity from 2019 onwards, including higher interest rates, a cyclical easing in global trade and investment growth, and a correction in equity prices. We forecast M&A values to drop to US$2.9 trillion in 2019, and IPOs to just over US$270 billion.
1 Rising deal momentum
World M&A and IPO values chart
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